AjayShah

  • Subscribe to our RSS feed.
  • Twitter
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Facebook
  • Digg

Sunday, 6 February 2011

What is wrong with Economics

Posted on 08:26 by Unknown
Raghuram Rajan has an interesting piece on what went wrong with the economics profession in the

years that led up to the global crisis. His big issues: specialization, the difficulty of forecasting, and the disengagement of much of the profession from the real world.



I think these, in turn, are directly related to the incentives of academic publishing. It's a recurring theme in agency theory: When the principal rewards the agent for performance in a certain direction, an excessive focus upon that comes about, and performance in other directions gets contaminated. When universities created an incentive structure linked purely to peer-reviewed journal pubs, economists focused on performing for each other, instead of performing for the world.



So in our diagnosis of the crisis, just as we criticise the HR policies of banks, we should also criticise the HR policies of universities.



While I'm quite aware of the narrowing of the mind that comes about from the Western-style process of focusing on pubs and tenure, it is not easy to find an alternative HR framework. George Stigler had a fascinating little article on this (which I was unable to find: do you know it?).



In India, in particular, the economics profession suffers from the twin maladies of low pressure and the historical baggage of development/socialist economics. On average, if an Indian economics department was given strong incentives to publish more, it would be an improvement. Performing for economists is better than not performing. At the same time, on the scale of mankind, it does seem that economists need to do more in terms of performing for the world.



Why does the publishing+tenure process work well in science and engineering? I have an opinion of one element that is in play there. In science and engineering, bringing in resources through research contracts is essential for doing research because research requires expensive equipment, staff, etc. There is, then, a joint production of academic publications alongside performing for the world (which allocates research funding). Hence, when the principal asked for academic publications, this did not generate a closing of the mind. In contrast, most research in economics in the top departments worldwide does not require bringing in external funding. So that source of pressure for performing for the world is absent.
Read More
Posted in global macro, world of ideas | No comments

Friday, 4 February 2011

Author: Jeetendra

Posted on 22:53 by Unknown
  • Mythbusting: Balance of payments edition, 6 July 2011

  • The extent to which reform of the capital account is or should be irreversible, 7 February 2011.

  • Free your mind, 16 May 2009

  • The oil subsidy is causing an indigestion, 8 September 2008.


Read More
Posted in author: Jeetendra | No comments

Interesting readings

Posted on 12:49 by Unknown




Important
new facts
about the Bombay attacks, by Sebastian Rotella, on
Propublica. It seems that we have a name and a face for the key
handler of the murderers.



Vikram
Doctor
about how Bollywood is (not) growing up.



Why Bombay should envy London.



Maihar music
lineage
: first set of shows in Bombay, Calcutta, Bangalore, Delhi.








Samar
Halamkar
in the Hindustan Times on making expenditure
programs of GOI work.








It appears that the Mubarak regime in Egypt is now at its end
game. The most interesting question now is: Will Egypt turn into a
normal country, or will there be a collapse into a fascist regime as
happened with Iran? In order to understand this, it is useful to
read
about Iran's story
(Abbas Milani in the National Interest) and Carrie
Rosefsky Wickham
in Foreign Affairs on the Muslim
Brotherhood.



Do the events in Egypt change our prior about Iran, Saudi Arabia
and China?
Read Eric
Abrahamsen
in Foreign Policy
and Willy
Lam
on AsiaSentinel on
China. Egypt's
lessons for Asia
by Gavin M. Greenwood on
AsiaSentinel.








Evan
Fraser and Andrew Rimas
in Foreign Affairs on food riots.



Howcome you never see a headline like Psychic wins
lottery?
. Are lotteries just a tax on dumb people? I
read this
great story
about a statistician who figured out how to win
the lottery.



Paul
Krugman
in the New York Times Magazine on Europe's
currency crisis.



The
art of good writing
by Adam Haslett, in the Financial
Times
.




Read More
Posted in | No comments

Importance of the appointments process

Posted on 12:36 by Unknown


A memorable passage
from When
Irish eyes are crying
, the story of Ireland's economic
disaster by Michael Lewis, in Vanity Fair:




...the dominant narrative inside the head of the average Irish
citizen -- and his receptiveness to the story Kelly was telling -- changed
at roughly 10 o'clock in the evening on October 2, 2008. On that
night, Ireland's financial regulator, a lifelong Central Bank
bureaucrat in his 60s named Patrick Neary, came live on national
television to be interviewed. The interviewer sounded as if he had
just finished reading the collected works of Morgan Kelly. Neary, for
his part, looked as if he had been dragged from a hole into which he
badly wanted to return. He wore an insecure little mustache, stammered
rote answers to questions he had not been asked, and ignored the ones
he had been asked.



A banking system is an act of faith: it survives only for as long as
people believe it will. Two weeks earlier the collapse of Lehman
Brothers had cast doubt on banks everywhere. Ireland?s banks had not
been managed to withstand doubt; they had been managed to exploit
blind faith. Now the Irish people finally caught a glimpse of the guy
meant to be safeguarding them: the crazy uncle had been sprung from
the family cellar. Here he was, on their televisions, insisting that
the Irish banks were ``resilient'' and ``more than adequately
capitalized'' ... when everyone in Ireland could see, in the vacant
skyscrapers and empty housing developments around them, evidence of
bank loans that were not merely bad but insane. ``What happened was
that everyone in Ireland had the idea that somewhere in Ireland there
was a little wise old man who was in charge of the money, and this was
the first time they'd ever seen this little man,'' says McCarthy. ``And
then they saw him and said,
Who the fuck was that??? Is that the
fucking guy who is in charge of the money??? That's when everyone
panicked.''




Read More
Posted in financial sector policy | No comments

Better execution of complex IT systems in government

Posted on 06:39 by Unknown
The TAGUP report has been released. For the background, see the creation of the group and this blog post. The ideas of the report could give a quantum leap in the execution quality of five projects of tremendous importance -- the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Tax Information Network (TIN), the Expenditure Information Network (EIN), the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) and the New Pension System (NPS). In all these areas, political consensus has been achieved but the execution has floundered. More generally, these recommendations add up to an important fresh look at how to modify the ground rules of public administration in India, so as to better cope with the sorts of challenges that are now being faced.



Update (5 May 2011): Movement on implementation of TAGUP. 
Read More
Posted in announcements, information technology, pension reforms, policy process, publicfinance (expenditure), publicfinance (tax (GST)) | No comments

Wednesday, 2 February 2011

C. B. Bhave's 3 years at SEBI

Posted on 22:54 by Unknown
I first met C. B. Bhave when I walked into his office in September 1993. I was a freshly minted Ph.D. at the time. Speaking with him made a huge difference to my thinking about finance and markets.



He had clearly figured out the key building blocks of a revolution in the Indian capital market: electronic trading, clearing corporation, demutualisation, derivatives trading, depository, etc. Most Indian bureaucrats would have visited the trading floor of the LSE and the NYSE and replicated it. He had the strength of mind to look beyond `global best practices'. And from 1994 to 2001, the revolution went from ideas to action. It is hard to find an area of the Indian economy where the reforms were more successful.



The governance problem in finance spans two rather distinct problems: regulation (the making of rules) and supervision (the enforcement of rules). The best rules in the world are pointless if they are not backed by teeth. SEBI has shaped up as one of the best success stories in India's economic and commercial law, in the way rule of law has come to prominence. SEBI's orders are on their website. They are appealed at SAT. SAT processes cases rapidly. SAT is tough and competent. It's a great arrangement.



I remember, in the dark days where accusations about the `IPO Scam' were being bandied about, Bhave said to me that he remained confident that over the years, SEBI would sort itself out, thanks to the checks and balances that come with the rule of law. It is a message that we need to apply to all other financial regulators in India.



Bhave's SEBI made significant progress on strengthening the enforcement process leading up to good quality orders. On one hand, this required improvement of staff and processes. This is, of course, work in progress. A lot of work remains to be done before SEBI consistently writes high quality stuff. But the best orders of Bhave's SEBI are much superior to anything that came before. In addition, a strong enforcement process at SEBI required political toughness in not buckling under pressure.



It is, hence, not a surprise that his time at SEBI has been an exceptional one. Here are a few retrospectives on his time at SEBI:

  • Editorial in the Financial Express, 21 February 2011.

  • Old challenges, new Sebi chief: an editorial in Mint, 17 February 2011.

  • When a top regulator asked C. B. Bhave to stop margining FIIs... by Sachin Mampatta in DNA, 18 February 2011.

  • How Bhave transformed SEBI, by N. Sundaresha Subramanian, Anirudh Laskar & Pramit Bhattacharya, in Mint on 17 February 2011.

  • Impartiality will be his legacy, by Ashish Rukhaiyar, in the Business Standard, 15 February 2011.

  • An interview with C. B. Bhave with Gautam Chikermane, in the Hindustan Times, 13 February 2011.

  • A show on CNBC Awaaz, featuring Sanjay Pugalia, S. P. Tulsian and me, mostly in Hindi: One, Two, Three.

  • C. B. Bhave sets the bar high for SEBI's new Chairman UK Sinha in the Economic Times, 7 February 2011.


  • Bhave's great service to the Indian securities market by Mobis Philipose in Mint, 31 January 2011.


  • Bhave, a silent warrior for retail investors by Rajesh Abraham in Financial Chronicle, 31 January 2011.


  • Great job, Mr. Bhave by Shobhana Subramanian in Financial Express, 15 December 2010.


  • C. B. Bhave: In the eye of the storm by Tamal Bandyopadhyay in Mint, 8 August 2010.

Read More
Posted in ethics, legal system, policy process, securities regulation | No comments

India: a nascent social democracy?

Posted on 08:30 by Unknown
As India embarks on the early stages of middle income, there is interest in a more expansive outlay of expenditure for the government. This motivates the question: Can India now embark on constructing an array of welfare programs, which would ultimately add up to an approximation to a welfare state or a social democracy?



Vijay Kelkar and I wrote a paper Indian social democracy: The resource perspective on this question, for the 10th `Indira Gandhi Conference' which took place in New Delhi recently.
Read More
Posted in announcements, GDP growth, privatisation, public goods, publicfinance (expenditure), publicfinance (tax), publicfinance.deficit, publicfinance.expenditure.transfers, redistribution, socialism | No comments
Newer Posts Older Posts Home
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)

Popular Posts

  • Getting to a liberal trade regime
    I wrote two columns on trade liberalisation in Financial Express : Where did the Bombay Club go wrong? Trade liberalisati...
  • 11th Conference of the Macro/Finance Group
    All the materials are up on the website.
  • The disaster at Maruti
    The news from Maruti is disgusting . I have been curiously watching  how the stock market takes it in : That Maruti has serious labour prob...
  • A season for bad ideas
    One feature of each period of turbulence is that we get an upsurge of out of the box thinking. While it is always good to think out of the b...
  • Economic freedom in the states of India
    This blog post is joint work with Mana Shah. What is economic freedom? An index of economic freedom should measure the extent to which right...
  • An upsurge in inflation?
    There is a lot of concern about inflation. Most of it is based on perusing the following numbers of the year-on-year changes in price inde...
  • The two escape routes away from domestic formal-sector finance
    Three problems afflict formal-sector finance in India today: capital controls, taxation, and financial policy. The most important financial ...
  • Comments to discuss
    Maps vs. map data: appropriately drawing the lines between public and private Comment by Anonymous: OSM is a good effort, but it's ...
  • The glacial pace of change: QFI edition
    In the Percy Mistry report , there are some striking examples of the inability of the Indian policy process to deliver change at a reasonabl...
  • A sea change in the knowledge of the young in India
    In 1887, roughly 14 million children were born in India, and we got one Ramanujan. It seems reasonable to think that there were 9 others who...

Categories

  • announcements (53)
  • author: Harsh Vardhan (5)
  • author: Jeetendra (3)
  • author: Percy Mistry (3)
  • author: Pratik Datta (6)
  • author: Shubho Roy (12)
  • author: Suyash Rai (6)
  • author: Viral Shah (7)
  • banking (26)
  • Bombay (15)
  • bond market (11)
  • business cycle (20)
  • capital controls (39)
  • China (21)
  • commodity futures (3)
  • competition (20)
  • consumer protection (3)
  • credit market (10)
  • currency regime (45)
  • democracy (37)
  • derivatives (31)
  • education (8)
  • education (elementary) (11)
  • education (higher) (10)
  • empirical finance (4)
  • energy (6)
  • entrepreneurship (9)
  • environment (1)
  • equity (15)
  • ethics (23)
  • farmer suicide (1)
  • finance (innovation) (11)
  • financial firms (23)
  • financial market liquidity (25)
  • financial sector policy (90)
  • GDP growth (37)
  • geography (3)
  • global macro (19)
  • global warming (1)
  • health policy (1)
  • hedge funds (1)
  • history (19)
  • IMF (2)
  • incentives (9)
  • inflation (33)
  • informal sector (14)
  • information technology (34)
  • infrastructure (14)
  • international financial centre (18)
  • international relations (8)
  • labour market (17)
  • legal system (67)
  • market failure (1)
  • media (6)
  • migration (6)
  • monetary policy (46)
  • mores (5)
  • national security (1)
  • offtopic (2)
  • outbound FDI (3)
  • payments (9)
  • pension reforms (8)
  • police (3)
  • policy process (64)
  • politics (12)
  • privatisation (7)
  • prudential regulation (1)
  • PSU banks (7)
  • public administration (6)
  • public goods (26)
  • publicfinance (expenditure) (19)
  • publicfinance (tax (GST)) (9)
  • publicfinance (tax) (14)
  • publicfinance.deficit (8)
  • publicfinance.expenditure.transfers (10)
  • real estate (5)
  • redistribution (10)
  • regulatory governance (2)
  • reserves (3)
  • resolution (2)
  • risk management (3)
  • securities regulation (25)
  • socialism (33)
  • statistical system (31)
  • success (5)
  • systemic risk (3)
  • telecom (12)
  • the firm (22)
  • trade (21)
  • urban reforms (9)
  • volatility (3)
  • World Bank (4)
  • world of ideas (16)

Blog Archive

  • ▼  2013 (81)
    • ▼  September (6)
      • 11th Conference of the Macro/Finance Group
      • Implications of bringing commodity futures into th...
      • Interesting readings
      • Raghuram Rajan's day 1 statement
      • Implications of the Pensions Act
      • A season for bad ideas
    • ►  August (12)
    • ►  July (10)
    • ►  June (18)
    • ►  May (7)
    • ►  April (13)
    • ►  March (6)
    • ►  February (3)
    • ►  January (6)
  • ►  2012 (102)
    • ►  December (7)
    • ►  November (10)
    • ►  October (11)
    • ►  September (7)
    • ►  August (5)
    • ►  July (10)
    • ►  June (11)
    • ►  May (7)
    • ►  April (8)
    • ►  March (6)
    • ►  February (8)
    • ►  January (12)
  • ►  2011 (112)
    • ►  December (8)
    • ►  November (10)
    • ►  October (10)
    • ►  September (8)
    • ►  August (4)
    • ►  July (4)
    • ►  June (13)
    • ►  May (9)
    • ►  April (9)
    • ►  March (8)
    • ►  February (18)
    • ►  January (11)
  • ►  2010 (131)
    • ►  December (11)
    • ►  November (6)
    • ►  October (10)
    • ►  September (7)
    • ►  August (17)
    • ►  July (8)
    • ►  June (5)
    • ►  May (13)
    • ►  April (12)
    • ►  March (20)
    • ►  February (10)
    • ►  January (12)
  • ►  2009 (74)
    • ►  December (11)
    • ►  November (13)
    • ►  October (14)
    • ►  September (11)
    • ►  August (25)
Powered by Blogger.

About Me

Unknown
View my complete profile