We have released a cost-benefit analysis of the UID system. In one line, the result of the calculations, under fairly conservative assumptions, is that the IRR of building the system is 53% in real terms. Hence, building UIDAI is a pretty good use of public money.
Through this page, you can access a short and accessible explanation, a video presentation, and the full PDF paper. We have also released the spreadsheet used in our calculations, so that others can modify the assumptions or other numerical values, and obtain alternative answers.
This is true in the Indian case. Is it true in general? I feel the answer depends on (a) The scale of expenditure on subsidy programs and (b) The extent to which present implementation systems suffer from the kinds of leakages that UID readily addresses (multiple payments to one person, payments to ghosts). If a country has small welfare programs, that would undermine the case for UIDAI. If a country is doing a pretty good job of paying out subsidies through conventional procedures, that would undermine the case for UIDAI.
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