by Vimal Balasubramaniam and Ajay Shah.
The rupee-dollar is the most important price of the Indian
economy. It is discovered on the currency market. What are the
contours of this market? Specifically:
- How big is the daily trading in the rupee?
- Where does the rupee stand, in global rankings of currencies?
- Where does trading take place?
- Where are we on the onshore versus offshore distinction?
How big is the daily trading in the rupee?
Trading in the rupee is composed of the following elements of the
market:
| Exchange-traded | OTC | |
| Onshore | Options, futures | Spot, forwards, swaps, options |
| Offshore | Futures | Forwards, swaps, options |
We attempt an estimate of turnover across all components, on 25 May
2012:[1]
| Location | Billion USD |
|---|---|
| OTC Spot (onshore) | 19.82 |
| OTC Forwards (onshore) | 4.40 |
| OTC Swaps (onshore) | 11.34 |
| Exchange Futures (onshore) | 7.02 |
| Exchange Options (onshore) | 1.45 |
| Exchange Futures (offshore) | 1.17 [a] |
| OTC (offshore) | 20.03 [b] |
| Total | 65.23 |
| Source:- RBI Weekly Statistical Supplement, NSE, USE, MCX-SX, DGCX, and BIS Survey (Tables D.1.1 and D.1.2) | |
[a] DGCX data as on June 6, 2012 for May 2012. | |
[b] This is the April 2010 BIS survey valuation of the offshore market, adjusted for the DGCX daily average value (estimated from overall value of futures contracts) for April 2010. | |
This is an under estimate for two reasons. Data for one important element
(offshore OTC) pertains to April 2010; the market must have grown
since then. Data from the BIS is likely to not capture activities of non-bank players.
Three interesting facts come out of this. First, that the overall
market for the rupee is roughly $70 billion a day. Second, that
roughly one-third of it is spot, and the rest is derivatives. Third,
that rougly one-third of it is offshore.
Growth in recent years has been tremendous. In May 2000, the
onshore market did only $2.7 billion a day. That is, we've got 24x
growth over 12 years.
Where does the rupee stand, in global rankings of currencies?
BIS surveys global banks and reveals interesting data about the currency market. However, it is likely that the BIS misses out on a great deal of non-bank activity. If a hedge fund sends an order to an exchange, this is likely to elude the measurement of the BIS.
According to the BIS, in April
2010, the daily average turnover for the INR against the USD was a
total of U$41.7 billion. [2] INR then ranked 15th
(spot), 10th (forwards) and 22nd (swaps) in a pool of 28 currencies
covered in this BIS survey. Summing up, the rupee stood at rank 16
in their group of 28 currencies. In the class of emerging markets,
the rupee ranked fourth, third and ninth in the spot, forwards and
swap markets respectively:
Ranking among EMs | |||
| Currency | Spot | Forwards | Swaps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Korean Won | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Mexican Peso | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Russian Ruble | 3 | 12 | 5 |
| Indian Rupee | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| South African Rand | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| Brazilan Real | 6 | 4 | 14 |
| Chinese Renminbi | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| Turkish Lira | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| Polish Zloty | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Taiwan Dollar | 10 | 5 | 11 |
Source:- BIS Survey, Tables D.1.1 and D.1.2 | |||
The BIS triennial survey included the INR since 1998. The
three-yearly snapshot of Rupee's position marks its rise over
time. Measuring only the spot market, the rupee ranked 13 (tied with
Hungary, Indonesia and Chile) in 1998 and moved to the third position
in 2010. In terms of change, the rupee has moved dramatically,
perhaps, with no other currency witnessing such rapid change.
Emerging market currencies rank: spot market | |||||
| Economy | 1998 | 2001 | 2004 | 2007 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Korea | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| India | 13 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Brazil | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| China | 16 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 5 |
| Chinese Taipei | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Mexico | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Turkey | 18 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 8 |
| Malaysia | 16 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 10 |
| South Africa | 4 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
Source:- BIS Survey, Table D.19 | |||||
The most surprising feature of these results is the extent to which
the rupee is a bigger market than the CNY, even though Chinese GDP and
internationalisation exceed that of India. It seems to suggest that you'd have to do bigger trades to obtain a 1% change in the INR/USD rate, when compared with the trade size required to obtain the same change with the CNY/USD rate. This helps us see why India has moved into greater exchange rate flexibility when compared with China: there was really no choice.
Where does trading take place?
For the first time, Table D.6 of the triennial survey provides
information about where currency trading takes place. A
surprisingly diverse set of locations light up:
Location of the currency market (% of turnover) | |||||
| Location | BRL | CNY | INR | KRW | ZAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | -- | -- | 50.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Australia | 0.51 | 0.44 | 0.31 | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| Brazil | 29.68 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Canada | 4.66 | 1.36 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.39 |
| China | -- | 24.87 | -- | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hong Kong SAR | -- | 27.29 | 10.91 | 10.33 | -- |
| Japan | 0.05 | 0.28 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 4.65 |
| Korea | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 52.13 | 0.02 |
| Singapore | 1.07 | 19.01 | 16.12 | 21.01 | 1.18 |
| United Kingdom | 19.18 | 17.29 | 12.32 | 10.98 | 36.43 |
| United States | 37.53 | 7.72 | 9.26 | 3.95 | 8.36 |
Source:- BIS Survey, Table D.6 | |||||
Where are we on the onshore versus offshore distinction?
As the table above suggests, roughly half of rupee trading takes
place in India. The issues which shape this onshore versus offshore
market share are likely to be similar
to those seen with Nifty. Recent events are likely to have driven
the share of the onshore market to below 50%.
The onshore OTC market consists of forex spot transactions,
forwards and swaps. The RBI publishes information on turnover in the
onshore spot and forward market and the forward and spot legs of the
swap transaction are captured in this data as well. An RBI report
on OTC derivatives in 2011 highlights that OTC derivative turnover was
3.53 trillion USD in FY2009-10. Out of this, forex swaps account for
over 60% of the total turnover in the same period. Here is the time series for the onshore OTC market:
| Source: RBI, Weekly Statistical Supplement (1996 - 2012) |
Exchange-trading of the rupee, in India, started in 2010. At a
point in time, turnover in exchange-traded currency futures did seem
to have overtaken
the OTC forward market. The USD-INR futures contract on MCX-SX, NSE,
and USE with a contract size of USD 1000 occupied the first three
ranks for volume in the world in 2010 and 2011. The USD-INR
options contract on the NSE ranked fourth while the EUR-INR futures on
the NSE also featured in the top 20 forex futures contracts in the
world. The collapse in the following graph, which shows exchange traded onshore turnover, is associated with the CCI
order:
| Source: NSE, MCX-SX, and USE |
Putting together the information from the onshore exchange-traded market
(options, and futures) and the onshore OTC market (spot, forward, swaps data
from the RBI), one gets a complete picture about the onshore INR
market:
| Source: RBI, NSE, MCX-SX, and USE |
The most recent BIS triennial survey (April 2010) had placed the
onshore market (USD-INR) at about U$20 billion. As the graph above shows, current values are
more like U$30 billion a day. The offshore market is likely to have
grown more, giving total INR turnover of well above U$70 billion a
day. This puts the Indian rupee today above the Korean Won as of
April 2010.
Conclusions
The Indian rupee has grown rapidly to becoming the sixteenth most
traded currency in the world. From less than 0.2% of the world forex
turnover in 1998, it has grown rapidly to constitute about 0.9% of the
world forex turnover in April 2010. It is one of the biggest emerging
market currencies with the Korean Won, Russian Ruble, Chinese Renminbi
and the Mexican Peso being its close competitors. The offshore market
today is as big as the onshore market, as is seen by other EMs. Today,
the rupee does roughly $70 billion a day, roughly where the biggest EM
currency (the KRW) was in 2010.
These developments have many ramifications:
- The rise of a large currency market is consistent with India's
rapid integration into the world economy of recent decades.
- When a market does turnover of $70 billion a day, market
manipulation is difficult. Manipulating the rupee is now as hard as manipulating Nifty: both are large globally traded products with highly liquid markets. This is the essence of India's
evolution away from an INR/USD pegged exchange rate to a
mostly-floating exchange rate: the monetary policy distortions
required to support manipulation became too large.
- As with Nifty,
mistakes of domestic policy are giving a substantial shift in
India-related finance to overseas locations. The two most
important pillars of the Indian financial system are trading in
the rupee and in the Nifty, and with both these, India is rapidly losing ground. If present policy mistakes continue, the role of the onshore market will continue to decline, for both the rupee and Nifty. - In the last 12 years, there was 24x growth. Suppose there is
only 10x growth in the next 10 years. That would take us to $700
billion a day, which would be quite something.
- Looking into the future, if India is able to continue on the
course of high GDP growth and integration into the world economy,
the rupee will become a big currency by world standards. The big
four currencies today are the USD, EUR, JPY, GBP. It is not
inconceivable to think of CNY and INR joining that club. This could
connect nicely with a
role for India in global finance. But for all these good things
to happen, we have to put our house in order.
Notes
| [1] Forward market turnover is estimated as purchase + sale - cancellation. |
| [2] The BIS survey also does cross-border netting - something that we cannot adjust for from the RBI data. However, as Jayanth Varma points out, this may not be a very large number that the overall calculations dramatically change. |
0 comments:
Post a Comment