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Monday, 29 August 2011

Vijay Kelkar

Posted on 03:24 by Unknown


Financial Express recently did a special feature about 20
interesting people in India's economic reforms. In that, I wrote
this profile of Vijay Kelkar.



Vijay Kelkar's is a fascinating story in Indian public policy. He
started out as an economics Ph.D. and turned himself into a consummate
policymaker. While he did many interesting things in the field of oil
and gas, and as executive director of the IMF, I worked with him in
his fiscal phase.



This involved carrying forward the tax reform agenda of the 1990s,
translating the intent of the FRBM Act into a concrete workplan,
leading the transformation of income tax administration through
innovative institutional arrangements in the form of the Tax
Information Network (where the implementation was contracted out to
NSDL), analysing and championing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and
leading the 13th Finance Commission.



For most people, the idea of the fiscal reform is exhausting. Fiscal
systems have many moving parts, and suffer from the political economy
problem of entrenched beneficiaries. I used to get astonished at the
way Kelkar, who is 20 years older than me, consistently found the
energy and morale to go back into the fray again and again, chipping
away at solving long-standing problems. This also taught me that while
weary cynicism is a more fashionable pose, progress is only achieved
through the dint of boundless optimism.



Practical people are often dismissive of the world of ideas, but that
is not the Kelkar that I have known. For one thing, he made a point of
reading the current global research in economics on an astonishing
scale. I have been frequently humbled in finding that his knowledge of
the current literature was better than mine. I suspect his years at
the IMF were very useful in tooling him up in modern open economy
macroeconomics, which is often a gap in the knowledge of those who
experienced a closed India in their formative years. Kelkar has always
encouraged me, saying that in an open society, ideas matter, so it was
important to build good ideas, and to push important messages out in
the public domain, even when this makes many people uncomfortable.



After decades of engagement, Kelkar is no longer active in the public
policy work of the New Delhi community. However, he has begun a stint
as chairman of the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Given the immense
importance of the equity market in the Indian economy, and the immense
complexity of ownership and governance of stock exchanges, it is
indeed valuable that a person of his wisdom is performing this public
service.




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Posted in policy process | No comments

Saturday, 27 August 2011

The US sells chopsticks to China

Posted on 07:39 by Unknown


by James Hanson.



We generally think that the United States exports the operating
systems that power the iphone, the ipad, the kindle, and Android; in
return China exports mens underwear. This is roughly consistent with
our notions of comparative advantage: the US has an abundant pool of
the top end human capital of the world, while China has an abundant
pool of low-skill labour. Each is better off from this trade.



It, then, comes as a surprise when the Economist reports
that the US exports
chopsticks to China
:





Enter Georgia Chopsticks. Jae Lee, a former scrap-metal exporter,
saw an opportunity and began turning out chopsticks for the Chinese
market late last year. He and his co-owner, David Hughes, make their
chopsticks from poplar and sweet-gum trees, which have the requisite
flexibility and toughness, and are abundant throughout Georgia.



In May Georgia Chopsticks moved to larger premises in Americus, a
location that offered room to grow, inexpensive facilities and a
willing workforce. Sumter County, of which Americus is the seat, has
an unemployment rate of more than 12%. Georgia Chopsticks now employs
81 people turning out 2m chopsticks a day. By year’s end Mr Lee and Mr
Hughes hope to increase their workforce to 150, and dream of building
a “manufacturing incubator” to help foreign firms take advantage of
Georgia’s workforce and raw materials.



But that is some way off. For now Messrs Lee and Hughes, and their
workers, keep busy shearing, steaming, shaving, cutting and drying
huge logs into rough chopsticks. They still need to be finished—to eat
with a pair of Georgia Chopsticks right off the Americus line you
would need tweezers in your other hand and a high pain tolerance. For
that they are shipped via the Port of Savannah to China (later this
year they will start sending them to Korea and Japan) in boxes with a
rare and prestigious stamp: Made in the USA.





This might be considered a paradox or another indicator of US manufacturing weakness, but in fact it probably reflects comparative advantage.



One basic theory of comparative advantage in exports is based on
differences in the relative abundance of labor, capital, land, natural
resources etc., leaving aside government interference with trade
patterns and macroeconomic policy. Although this theory is hard to
use to explain trade in a particular product between countries, US
exports of chopsticks to China seem consistent with the theory.



US land abundance relative to growing use of land for
non-agricultural uses in China probably means it makes economic and
price sense for the US to grow lumber to produce chopsticks for
China. This trade seems to be just another example of US net exports
of agricultural products, which reflects the relative abundance of US
land (and the land-intensive and capital-intensive agricultural
techniques that are used in the US, as well as US Government
policies).



The US exports semi-finished chopsticks, however: the final
finishing is left to Chinese labor and capital. This characteristic
of the US exports seems consistent with the theory and transport
costs. Shipping just the wood would raise transport costs and fully
finishing chopsticks is probably a labor intensive activity,
especially if it must be done to satisfy the particular demands of
Chinese consumers.



More generally, the empirical patterns of international trade are
quite complex and defy simple theory. There is a lot of rich-rich
trade than the simple theory would predict. Many poor countries are
exporting remarkably sophisticated things (e.g. India exporting
motorcycles or software). Many rich countries are exporting low-skill
things (as above). Explaining the observed patterns in the data, about
international trade, is hard. But there is more good sense in the
classical theory than meets the eye.




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Posted in China, trade | No comments

Saturday, 20 August 2011

Interesting readings

Posted on 22:29 by Unknown





The Anna Hazare silliness is depressing. Writing in the Indian
Express
, Shekhar
Gupta
has an interesting angle on why there is so much
interest in this snake oil.



India's
$2 trillion economy means we have to reform faster
by
R. Jagannathan on FirstPost.



Meera
Subramanian
has a beautiful story about how Diclofenac, fed to
cows, is killing off India's vultures. We're down from 50M vultures
to 60k. The consequences are bigger than we think.



Former
Sebi member Abraham?s claims under CVC lens
by Appu Esthose
Suresh in Mint.



China's
port in Pakistan?
, by Robert D. Kaplan, in Foreign Policy.



The
10 most corrupt Indian politicians
.








A promising
band: Menwhopause. Listen.



The
decline of Asian marriage
, in the Economist.








Vinayak
Chatterjee
on ten projects that matter in India today.



The
new draft Microfinance
Bill
. Back
story
.



Nirvikar
Singh
in the Financial Express on the CCI order about NSE.








Think
again: War
by Joshua S. Goldstein in Foreign Policy.



Hegemony
with Chinese characteristics
by Aaron L. Friedberg, in
the National
Interest
. Arab
Spring, Chinese Winter
by James Fallows, in
the Atlantic. The
South China Sea is the future of conflict
by Robert
D. Kaplan, in Foreign Policy.



href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303365804576430161732491064.html?mod=WSJ_article_MoreIn_Life%26Culture">The
problems of dogs in Iran.












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Monday, 8 August 2011

Household financial choice of the hapless households of India

Posted on 09:26 by Unknown


In February 2010, I had the opportunity to href="http://www.ifmr.co.in/blog/2010/02/09/professor-ajay-shah-on-financial-distribution/">visit
Pudhuaaru KGFS in Thanjavur. This is a remarkable project which
helps us see the interface between households and the financial
system in a wholly new light.



What a difference 17 months makes! On that visit, I had found a
little tenuous Reliance CDMA cover at one place in Thanjavur city. On
this visit, I found 3g or Edge cover in many remote places. On that
visit, the ride from the airport at Tiruchirapalli to Thanjavur took
two hours. This time, it got done in 30 minutes on the new NHAI road,
with a peak velocity of 110 kph. While there are many reasons to be
gloomy about the problems that India faces, some things are
moving along merrily.



The KGFS approach to households and finance



KGFS emphasises the very important idea that for households to
correctly engage with the financial system, this relationship must be
(a) rooted in high quality advice, (b) which is grounded in a state of
strong information about the household. The first is achieved by
focusing on the incentives of the front line staff, by pushing them to
think about household financial choice in its entirety instead of
thinking about one product at a time, and by having no sales
commission.



The removal of asymmetric information matters in many ways. On one
dimension, if credit is extended to the household, a state of high
information helps ensure better credit decisions. But more generally,
across an array of financial products, when the advisor knows a lot
about the household, the advisor would be able to synthesise an
appropriate mix of sophisticated financial products which add up to an
improvement in household welfare. In time, the advisor will
increasingly lean on an expert system to help him do this better: it's
a good approach today and it will get better in coming years.



I think there is enormous value in this approach. I believe that
KGFS is doing a great job of building this kind of information about
households in their present rollout (which involves going into really
small villages at three locations, in Thanjavur, in Uttarakhand and in
Orissa).



The typical KGFS front-end is a three-man branch in a village,
where the three employees live in that very village. Remote villages
in India are an environment of radical transparency. The households
are relatively trusting. The three people in the outlet know an
incredible amount about the households that surround them. Households
and dwellings in small villages are rather stable: there is relatively
little action through migration / change in financial conditions,
etc. If there was ever an environment where asymmetric information is
being removed, it is this.



The line between household finance and small business finance
cannot be drawn. An adaptation of the KGFS approach can be quite
effective with small business also: the KGFS branch would obtain a
full picture of the firm, and deliver a portfolio of financial
services to it.



A nice feature of the places where KGFS branches are being rolled
out is the lack of alternatives. At a time when Indian financial
regulation does not do much to check the behaviour of conventional
financial distribution, a few high pressure sales agents can queer the
pitch for the KGFS staff. By being in remote places that are being
ignored by distributors, the KGFS staffpeople have the luxury of
dealing with households without the households being tugged by various
high pressure sales tactics of rival sales agents.



Urban households are being mistreated by finance



I also realised some limitations of this approach. Looking forward,
India is urbanising. At first blush, it may appear that there is a big
problem with the utilisation of finance in rural India. But there are
big problems with the utilisation of finance in urban India.



The urban middle class and upper class is deluged with sales
pitches by a variety of sales agents of financial firms. But these
agents are almost always mis-selling, given their drive to push a
product (through commissions) and given their lack of knowledge about
the household's overall financial problem. Almost all financial
products that are pushed in India (i.e. sold and not bought) seem to
be mis-sold. I also feel that when the conversation between a sales
guy and the household is about a product and not the overall
household financial choice, it is almost always leading to the wrong
answers. It's tantamount to a salesman who sells a drug without
knowing anything about the patient.



What is out there, in urban finance, is a scandal, and I am
embarassed to be an accessory to the crime (in however peripheral
fashion). While in Thanjavur, I got the odd sense that at its best, a
rural household that's well connected to a local KGFS outlet is doing
better on utilising the power of finance, when compared with
most urban households who are victims of the sales practices that are
mainstream in Indian finance.



In this sense, the real problem for India is not the tawdry state
of financial inclusion of the very poor in remote places. The real
problem for India -- one that influences the bulk of Indian GDP and
the households that matter greatly for India's growth -- is the tawdry
state of financial planning of the typical urban household.



The KGFS approach is valuable and important to the places where
it's being rolled out. But the burning challenge is that of fixing the
mainstream. The mode of India is not brutally poor and isolated; it is
middle class urban. Improving the interface between middle class and
urban households, and the financial system, matters on a GDP
scale.



An unrelated rumination: How important is rural deprivation in thinking about India?



The discussion above is a recurring theme in Indian economics. A
variety of incentives (development journals, first world aid agencies,
government rhetoric) make it fashionable to emphasise rural
deprivation. But India is changing and the sweet spot has shifted. The
emphasis on poverty and rural is increasingly off-centre. To stay
relevant, and do the most important things in today's India, we have
to keep our eye on the ball.



To fix intuition, it's useful to look at the distribution of annual
household income, over April 2010 to March 2011, from the href="http://www.consumer-pyramids.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=wreport&group=0&repnum=123&period=201103A">CMIE
household survey of 143,000 households:















PercentileHousehold income
10 45,700
20 59,900
30 72,800
40 90,000
50 112,200
60 142,500
70 180,000
80 240,000
90 348,500



As an aside, I think it's useful for anyone who thinks about India
to memorise these nine numbers. Or atleast memorise these three
numbers: the 25th percentile is Rs.66,000; the median is Rs.112,200
and the 75th percentile is Rs.208,500.



Middle India today has a household income from Rs.66,000 a year (at
the 25th percentile) to Rs.208,500 a year (at the 75th
percentile). The old-style Indian story of rural deprivation is
(roughly speaking) about the 20% of households who are below Rs.59,900
a year (and the size of that group is shrinking). The main story of
India is about the remainder.



An emphasis upon exotic poverty is as misplaced, in thinking about
today's India, as an emphasis on designer clothes. Perhaps a bit
worse, looking forward, since the extremeties of deprivation are being
extinguished by growth, while designer clothes are a superior
good.



Urban households are a much harder problem



So it's natural to ask: How can the KGFS approach be applied to
urban India? When dealing with the urban poor and middle class, it
seems that things are much harder.



Rural households tend to be more trusting, particularly in an
environment of ethnic homogeneity and the repeated game that prevails
in the village setting. But in urban India, households are more
skeptical given the lack of ethnic ties and given the greater
experience with people who have finked in prisoner's dilemmas.



Rural households tend to be a stable household in a stable dwelling
place. Urban households tend to be physically mobile with greater
fluctuations in the household composition.



Until deeper reforms on consumer protection take place in Indian
financial regulation, urban households will be constantly tugged by
unscrupulous sales agents of financial firms pushing products based on
high pressure tactics Even if a KGFS tried to be patient and thorough,
the very presence of such high pressure sales tactics would
contaminate what a KGFS and its ilk can do.



It is relatively easy to construct information about the economic
environment of a farming household (though seasonality and revenue
volatility is a serious concern). I feel it may be relatively hard to
even put together a picture of an urban household, particular when
there is informality of labour supply coupled with
entrepreneurship. This makes it difficult to do financial planning for
such households.



On the other hand, in urban India, the revenue per household would
be higher, and perhaps households could be persuaded to pay for advice
qua advice. Or, the government could move on giving out advice
vouchers to households, thus spurring the rise of an unconflicted
advice industry.



Summary



I think KGFS is a great approach and it will be fascinating to
watch them execute their agenda in the really remote places of
India. What they are doing is path-breaking and important. This should
help us set our sights higher on the problems of urban India. I
have traditionally felt gloomy, in the knowledge that most households
in India are being scammed by the agents selling financial
products. As I look at KGFS, I find myself thinking: Can't we do
something like this in mainstream India?
I think this is an
important question to ask. At the same time, there are some visible
hurdles which suggest that this will be hard.



Credits



I am grateful to Bindu Ananth, Ramesh Ramanathan, S. G. Anil Kumar,
Kshama Fernandes and K. P. Krishnan for many conversations which
helped in improving this post.




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Posted in ethics, financial firms, financial sector policy, informal sector | No comments
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