Sanjeev Sanyal in Business Standard : Building cities for 21st century India, Delhi (which leads you to delhinullahs.org), and Calcutta. Also see: The Sustainable Planet Institute. Why investment banks were fated to be roadkill, in Financial Express by Viral Acharya. On Mumbai's Streets, Cabbies Fight To Keep Passengers Uncomfortable by Eric Bellman in the Wall Street Journal. A simple emphasis on law and order would go a long way. Green roots of recovery, by Ila Patnaik in Indian Express. In...
Saturday, 31 October 2009
Friday, 30 October 2009
Thursday, 29 October 2009
Writing in Indian Express, Pratap Bhanu Mehta looks back at Indira Gandhi. He offers five lessons for today's Congress: Leaders are more effective when they work through institutions rather than attempting to subvert them. Sound economic policies are not a matter of simply projecting good intentions; they require a concerted understanding of the causal conditions that make for successful intervention. Being personally secular is neither here nor there. The important thing is to fish in the treacherous waters of communal identification,...
Monday, 26 October 2009
Sunday, 25 October 2009
Monday, 19 October 2009
Friday, 16 October 2009
Shilpy Sinha and Swapnil Mayekar have a story in Business Standard offering some optimism about the corporate bond market. They point out that in the six months from April to September 2009, corporate bond turnover was Rs.1.6 trillion, when compared with Rs.0.5 trillion in the same period of the previous year.SEBI has decided to force many market participants to do netting by novation at a clearing corporation when trading on the corporate bond market. From 1 December 2009 onwards, there will be two possibilities...
Tuesday, 13 October 2009
David Oakley reports on Brazil having made it to investment grade. This is their payoff to the immense progress that took place in the last decade in terms of fiscal, financial and monetary institution building. In many respects, India's starting conditions today are similar to where Brazil was before these reforms. Robert Shiller, in Financial Times defends financial innovation, and Robert Cryan, in New York Times worries that Canadian banks missed opportunities in this crisis. Chiraga Chakrabarty, in DNA, on the...
Monday, 12 October 2009
It seems that we got a good IIP number today? Here's what the year-on-year growth of IIP Manufacturing says: Mar 2009 -0.30 Apr 2009 0.39 May 2009 1.84 Jun 2009 7.82 Jul 2009 7.41 Aug 2009 10.21 So it looks like a recovery is gaining traction, with yoy growth going up in each month from March 2009 till August 2009, other than a slight decline in July 2009?No.The year-on-year growth is, unfortunately, a highly misleading measure. Here's what we get when we look at the seasonally adjusted levels and the annualised growth of these: Seas.Adj.IIP...
Sunday, 11 October 2009
In recent weeks, there has been a lot of focus on the appreciation of the rupee against the dollar. In an opinion piece in Financial Express today, I point out that the US dollar has fluctuated considerably in the period after September 2008, and interpret the recent events on the Indian currency market. At first, in the `flight to safety' into US government bonds that came about after the Lehman shock, the US dollar gained ground. As the global financial system has gained confidence, the reversal of this `flight to safety' has meant a concomitant...
Monday, 5 October 2009
We'll soon get the announcement. Here are a few possibilities, computed by Thomson/Reuters, using citation analysis.If I had to vote, it would be a Taylor/Woodford prize. For a sense of this work, see: link, link. While inflation targeting was invented in New Zealand based on the intuition of cleanliness in public administration, Taylor and Woodford had a lot to do with being able to think straight about it.It's interesting to wonder how publicly visible citation data can be used to predict the Nobel prize outcome. One would want some kind...
Sunday, 4 October 2009
I have a piece in Financial Express today about the deeper linkages between the failed Bharti/MTN transaction and India's problem of capital controls.The dual listing issue was, of course, not the only or even the main reason why the Bharti/MTN transaction failed. But it was an important impediment, and many interesting transaction structures could have been used if this constraint had been absent. And, the issues that I highlight in the article are applicable in a much broader range of situations. Unsigned reportage in Economic Times suggests...
The automobile industry is an oasis in the Indian economy in terms of having high quality data. Commercial vehicles are of particular interest given that CV sales is a component of investment demand in the economy. Hence, we can learn something about investment demand in particular, and business cycle conditions in general, by looking at what is going on with CVs. If you try to draw a graph of the time-series of CV sales, you will find that this...
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